> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.monofin.xyz/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Event markets

> Trade real-world outcomes as YES/NO shares priced between $0 and $1 — politics, sports, crypto, macro, and culture.

Event markets turn real-world questions into tradable probabilities. Will this candidate win? Will BTC close the year above \$150,000? Who takes the championship? If the timeline is arguing about it, there's probably a market on it.

## How event markets work

Every event market is a question with defined outcomes. Each outcome trades as a share priced between **$0 and $1**:

* The price **is** the probability. YES at 35¢ means the market thinks there's roughly a 35% chance it happens.
* If your outcome resolves correct, each share pays out **$1**. If it doesn't, it pays **$0**.
* You don't have to wait for resolution — sell your shares anytime to lock in a gain or cut a loss.

**Example.** "Will the Fed cut rates in March?" YES trades at 42¢. You buy 1,000 YES shares for $420. If the Fed cuts, your shares pay out $1,000 — a $580 gain. If the market moves to 60¢ before the meeting, you can sell early for $600 and take the \$180 without waiting.

## What you can trade

* **Politics** — elections, policy decisions, appointments
* **Sports** — championships, match outcomes, season milestones
* **Crypto** — price milestones, protocol events, ETF decisions
* **Macro** — rate decisions, CPI prints, economic events
* **Culture** — awards, launches, and the internet's argument of the week

New markets are curated and listed every week, each with written resolution rules before it goes live.

## Resolution

Every event market has a **resolution rules panel** on its market page: the exact question, the resolution source, and the deadline. When the source confirms the outcome, winning shares redeem at \$1 and the market settles to your balance.

> [!TIP]
>
> Read the resolution rules before you trade. The edge case you're imagining is usually answered there — "what counts," "which source decides," and "what happens if the event is cancelled."

## Event markets vs. perps

| | Event markets | Perpetuals |
| - | - | - |
| What you trade | An outcome (YES/NO) | Price exposure (long/short) |
| Price range | $0 – $1 | Tracks the underlying asset |
| Expiry | Resolves on a defined event | No expiry — close anytime |
| Leverage | No (share price caps your risk) | Yes — up to the market maximum |
| Max loss | What you paid for the shares | Your margin (liquidation) |

On event markets you can never lose more than you paid for the shares. That makes them the natural starting point for new traders — your risk is defined the moment you buy.


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